Georgia’s Big Gamble

Posted on November 30, 2015 by Billy Koehler

So, Georgia decided to fire Mark Richt.  Most of the articles you read today are going to be some variation of “how could they?”  How could they fire a man who averages 10 wins a season?  How could they fire a man of such high character?  How do you let a man who has given so much to your program go?  This is not that article.  This is the answer to those questions.  You fire a man who can’t get you where you want to go.

A Gamble

Make no mistake about this decision.  It is a gamble for Georgia.  With Richt you knew what you had.  You had a guy who would routinely turn in 9 and 10 win seasons.  Occasionally he would have a dud of a 7 or 8 win season, but occasionally he would win 12 games or so.  He never played for a national championship and hadn’t won the SEC in a decade.  That’s Mark Richt.

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There are other sides to Mark Richt.  There are other things he brought to the table, but those are footnotes, details that don’t matter.  In the SEC in 2015, if you’re not winning, nothing else matters.  If you’re not winning at the level your fans and administration expect, you’re finished.

With Richt’s firing Georgia has rejected this level of success.  It’s a level that many, many teams would happily take, but it isn’t enough in Athens.  The Bulldogs want titles, and they want to play for national championships.  Mark Richt wasn’t getting them there, so they are going to try someone else.

It Doesn’t Get Much Better

The next coach will probably be worse than Mark Richt.  He probably won’t win as many games, and it will probably take the Bulldogs a few years to build back to where they want to be.  Probably, but maybe not.  Maybe, the next guy will do better.  He might be able to get over the hump.  He might be able to fulfill Georgia’s potential.  Most coaches don’t win as much as Richt.  Finding one who will win more is not easy.

The only thing we know, and the fact driving the decisions in Athens, is that Mark Richt hasn’t gotten it done.  The Bulldogs were tired of waiting, so they are going to try someone else.  And that’s what they need to do.  If the road you are on isn’t taking you where you want to go, you have to make a turn.  That’s the gamble.  It probably won’t pay off.  There aren’t many coaches out there who are better than Richt.  Even if UGa can find one that is better, there is no guarantee it will translate to success.  There are so many variables and so many things that must go right.

This is 2015 

This is the world in 2015 in the SEC.  Teams don’t wait to see how long it will take to get to the top.  They don’t wait to see if a fortuitous convergence of talent will happen.  They aren’t content with a baseline of success and the hope of a magical season.  They want success now.  They want their team to be in the title hunt, and they are willing to cast aside anyone who doesn’t get them there.

The impatience is new.  Fans have always been short sighted and always want success yesterday.  Administrators have historically been more patient.  They have taken a longer view and been content with the programs being good, if not demanding great.  That seems to be changing, and the Richt firing is the latest in that line.

Phil Fulmer

This wouldn’t be a Mark Richt firing article if we didn’t talk about Phil Fulmer.  Tennessee’s handling of the end of the Fulmer era is a cautionary tale that is told every time a longtime, successful coach is forced out.  In Knoxville Fulmer ran an elite program.  He won a national title.  He didn’t win as many SEC Easts as the Vols wanted, and his teams started to wane in the mid 2000s.  In 2008, he was fired.  Tennessee has wandered the desert of no titles since then.

Three of the last seven years of the Fulmer era, the Vols won the East.  In the eight seasons since then, they have won none.  They are on their third coach, and none have been able to equal Fulmer’s success, much less surpass it.

This is the dilemma.  This is the down side.  When you have a coach like Phil Fulmer or Mark Richt, there are few upgrades available.  Those guys are about as good as it gets.  They aren’t the best, but they are very good.  When a school fires them looking for the best, they probably aren’t going to find it.

They probably aren’t going to find it because it is so rare.  Even if Georgia were to hire Urban Meyer or Nick Saban, two of the best coaches in the country, there’s no guarantee their success would be repeated in Athens.  They might be successful; it might be great; it may not.  And, Georgia isn’t hiring one of those guys.  They are going to hire someone younger, someone less proven.  For that, they will be criticized.

The Only Choice

They really don’t have a choice.  Mark Richt was in Athens for 15 years.  That’s long enough to know what you are getting.  It’s long enough to know who Mark RIcht is and what he does.  You either accept that and hope for a magic season, or you find someone else.  Georgia will find someone else.  It’s a gamble they have to take if they want to be better, but the odds are against them.

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Redemption Saturday

Posted on November 26, 2015 by Billy Koehler

“Sometimes the best thing you can say about a day is that it’s over.”  Many college football teams will look back on this season and understand that sentiment.  Some are already thinking it.  Expectations haven’t been met for most teams, but for some, the failures of this year have been especially acute.  Those teams now have one more thing to play for.  They have a chance to ruin a rival’s season, win a state championship and take something from this season.

Columbia 12:00 pm ESPN

Since Kenny Hill walked into Williams-Brice stadium 15 months ago, times have been rough for the Gamecocks.  A pre-season Top 10 ranking vanished to reveal a team that wasn’t Top 25 quality.  More alarming than the losses on the field was the realization that more were coming.  The success of the Spurrier era was not going to continue.  Optimism peaked briefly in the offseason with the hiring of a new defensive coordinator and an upbeat mindset from the Head Ball Coach.  A win over North Carolina stoked primed some sunshine pumping, but a Kentucky loss made clear just how wrong things had gone at South Carolina.

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The season and program continued to spiral down, and Steve Spurrier abruptly resigned.  Offensive line coach Shawn Elliott took over and briefly re-energized the program.  No unexpected wins came, but the team seemed to be playing hard in losses to Texas A&M and Tennessee.  The Florida game’s lack of offense was disappointing, and the Citadel loss looked a lot like rock bottom.  Now Clemson comes to town to see if the Gamecocks have quit on this season and their interim coach.

South Carolina can finish no better than 4-8, which isn’t much different from 3-9, but the last game is a rivalry game.  A win in that game carries the weight of accomplishment in a way that few other games do, regardless of the record.  This season a win might be the only positive for the Gamecocks to hold on to.  That win, however unlikely, would also come at the expense of their rivals national championship hopes.  Ruining Clemson’s season would be a nice bonus.2000px-Clemson_University_Tiger_Paw_logo.svg

It seems the players genuinely like their interim head coach.  Can he pull off a miracle?  Can his players rally around him for one game?  When things don’t go their way, and they won’t at some point, will they pack it it?  Will they rally?  If they do, will it matter, or will Clemson be too good?

Charlottesville 12:00 pm ESPNU  

Virginia head coach Mike London has been a dead man walking for weeks.  His probable dismissal at the end of the season has been common knowledge for most of the season.  That hasn’t stopped his players from playing hard for him.  An early season near-upset of Notre Dame could have sent the season in a different direction, but like so many games of the London Era, it didn’t work out for the Cavaliers.

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The Hokies come to town on Saturday.  Unlike many of the other games on this Saturday, this isn’t a game where David is trying to ruin Goliath’s season.  This is more like David versus David.  Both teams have sub .500 records, and both will have new coaches next year.  The winner isn’t going to a new year’s day bowl.  In fact, if Virignia wins, neither team is going to a bowl.

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This is a game for the coaches.  Mike London is probably coaching his last game in navy and orange.  Across the filed Frank Beamer has announced his retirement.  The game would have meaning anyway because of the rivalry, but it should have an added level of importance because of the pending exits of the coaches.  The winner will claim a state championship and a nice parting gift for their departing leader.

Atlanta 12:00 ESPN2

Poor Georgia Tech.  The Yellow Jackets were once in the conversation for the Playoff.  Then the preseason ended, and the losses mounted as fast as the injuries.  They were quickly out of the playoff and quickly out of the divisional race.  The only speck of light in a dark season was the kick six against Florida State.

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They don’t as strong a chance for redemption as some of the other schools do this weekend.  Georgia isn’t playing well enough to have something to ruin.  The Bulldogs didn’t win the East, and they aren’t on the verge of some great bowl game.  Can the Rambling Wreck hope to pull anything other than bragging rights out of this game?

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Yes, they can create turmoil in Athens.  This season hasn’t gone as expected for UGA, either.  Although they didn’t fall as far, there is plenty of discontent between the hedges.  There has been some chatter about Mark Richt being on the hot seat.  A loss to Georgia Tech would go a long way to fueling that speculation.  Would it be enough to get Richt fired?  I don’t know, but it might be.

Auburn 3:30 pm CBS

This isn’t how Gus Malzahn offenses are supposed to behave.  This isn’t how his return to the Plains was supposed to work.  It was all supposed to be Ellis Johnson’s fault.  It was his defense that held them back.  The lack of success this season with Malzahn has been surprising to more than just the Tiger faithful.  Few people saw this coming, and the Plainsmen will probably finish last in the SEC West.

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There is redemption for Auburn.  They can make it all better.  If they win, they will clearly and completely knock Alabama out of the Playoff.  They will be headed to a meaningless bowl themselves, and if they can find a way, they’ll relegate the Crimson Tide to the same fate.  That’s worth playing for.

Gainesville 7:30 pm ESPN  

The last two years, the shoe has been on the other foot.  It has been Florida trying to ruin Florida State’s season, not this year.  This year the Gators are headed to their conference’s championship game.  The Gators are looking at the probability of making a contract bowl, and with an upset in Atlanta, the playoff.

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Florida State has had a good season.  They lost to #1 Clemson on the road and in improbable fashion to Georgia Tech.  Although 9-2 is a great place to be, it is short of where their rivals are.  A win by the Noles would even things.  Both teams would finish 10-2, and Florida State might take Florida’s spot in a contract bowl.  That would redeem most of the disappointment of the season.

Palo Alto 7:30 pm FOX

Stanford’s season goals were wounded in the opening week at Northwestern.  The Cardinal rebounded for 8 weeks before meeting Oregon.  The Ducks, having a disappointing season themselves, salvaged some redemption by knocking Oregon out of the playoff conversation.  The Cardinal rallied to win the North division and will play for the Pac 12 title, but their dreams of going to the playoff are over.

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Stanford needs no redemption.  Winning their conference is a fine accomplishment in any season, regardless of the expectations.  They have an opportunity to add a feather to their cap.  A new goal is in front of them.  They can kill a rival’s playoff hopes, just as their playoff hopes were killed.  They can take an out of conference game with no impact on their bowl, no impact on their post season and make it matter.  Their actions will echo across the country.

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SEC East Down

Posted on November 25, 2015 by Billy Koehler

There was a time when the SEC was the best conference in college football.  It was a time when that fact could not be seriously debated, except by partisans of other conferences and people playing devil’s advocate.  There are those who still believe the SEC is the best conference in college football.  They may be right; it’s a reasonable point for debate.  What can no longer be debated is the SEC East is no longer elite.

This weekend Florida, the SEC East champion, defeated Florida Atlantic in overtime.  Georgia similarly needed overtime to beat Georgia Southern.  South Carolina missed a two point conversion and was unable to force overtime against the Citadel.  The Gamecocks lost.  It was supposed to be Cupcake Saturday.  The conference was taking flak for the strength of its schedule.  It should have been taking flak for the strength of its teams.

The Entire SEC East is Down

The SEC East has been in decline for a few years.  Vanderbilt has had so many bad losses that they don’t merit mentioning.  Kentucky was supposed to be resurgent under Mark Stoops.  They’ve recruited better, but that hasn’t translated into better play on the field, apart from two wins over South Carolina.  The Wildcats are two seasons removed from losing to Western Kentucky, and they haven’t beaten an SEC West team since 2009.

Tennessee, similarly, has increased its recruiting emphasis.  They have also beaten South Carolina and done little else.  Unlike many of the other East teams, the Volunteers have avoided embarrassing losses, but they haven’t been anything like the teams who used to lead the conference.

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South Carolina has gone from disappointing to bad to shockingly bad.  The loss to the Citadel was a new low in recent memory.  Last season the Gamecocks were #9 before stumbling to a 6-6 regular season.  This year an early loss to Kentucky presaged the type of season Columbia was about to have.

Missouri joined the conference and had a losing record.  If that was evidence of how hard is was to compete in the SEC, the Tigers’ back to back East championships are evidence of how far the conference has fallen.  One of the championship seasons saw Missouri win the East in the same year they lost to 4-8 Indiana.  This year Missouri has beaten South Carolina and lost to literally everyone else in the conference.

Florida and Georgia are supposed to be the flagship programs.  Georgia has been steady but unspectacular.  They’re averaging right at 10 wins a year, but can’t seem to break through with a championship.  If anyone is pulling their weight, it’s the Bulldogs.  Florida has a new coach and seems to be on the rebound, but the same optimism was prevalent in Knoxville, Columbia, Nashville and Lexington in recent years.

Just Temporary?

SEC East defenders will tell you this is just temporary.  They will often tell you that the East is really not that far behind the West.  If those teams were in another conference, they’d have a much better record.  Certainly last year’s 4-11 record against the West means they are partially right.  The SEC East does fare well out of conference as well.  Thus far this season, East teams are 20-4.  Last season East teams finished 25-8.  For a division that is down, those are respectable records.

However, what happened this past weekend in Gainesville, Athens and Columbia cannot be completely encapsulated in the 2-1 record.  Those games were ugly, and the teams playing in them were not elite.  There was a time when all three of those games would be blowouts, laughers by halftime.  That’s not true anymore.  The SEC East simply isn’t that great.

This season’s 20-4 OOC record is about to take a nose dive as well.  Most of those wins are against weaker competition from overmatched conferences.  This week’s games and the bowls will provide much tougher tests.  If the SEC East teams can find ways to win those games, we can reevaluate, but they aren’t.  The sterling winning percentage will plummet.

The East has the blessing and the curse of playing in the same conference with the West.  It is a blessing because they get lumped in together when it comes time to look at conferences as a whole.  It is a curse because unless the East is the best division in football, they are going to look weak in comparison.  However, the East is not suffering from being comparatively weak compared to the West.  It is suffering from not being that good.

Being worse than the SEC West is no tragedy.  It’s true of nearly every division in college football.  Just how much worse is the question.  Is the SEC East just a little worse than the West?  They’d like to think so.  Or, is it more accurate to say they are a lot worse, more like an ACC division?  Last weekend implies the latter.

The SEC East hasn’t been able to pull itself up.  New coaches at Tennessee and Kentucky were supposed to do the job.  Legends at South Carolina, Missouri and Georgia haven’t been able to win at a high level.  It may be cyclical, but the longer they East stays down the longer you have to ask how long is this cycle?

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Notre Dame Must Lose

Posted on November 24, 2015 by Billy Koehler

The Committee is going to have hard decisions to make when they choose the last two participants for the playoff.  The first two will be easy.  Undefeated Clemson will be in the playoff, and SEC Champion Alabama will be there.  No one will argue with either of those.  After that, there may be a sea of one loss teams with similar resumes.  Distinguishing between them will be almost impossible, unless Notre Dame makes things easy and loses.

The Contenders

2013_Ohio_State_Buckeyes_logo.svgOhio State.  The Buckeyes only need to beat Michigan to finish 11-1.  Their only loss will be a three point game to Michigan State.  Assuming Penn State doesn’t upset the Spartans, Ohio State will not play for the Big Ten championship.  Other than that game, this season’s resume is stronger than last year’s, and last year’s got the Bucks in the playoff.

Michigan State:  The Spartans need two more wins to put themselves in the playoff.  They aren’t guaranteed to be there, but they should be.  If they win out they will have wins over Michigan, Ohio State and Iowa.  That’s as many quality wins as anyone.  Their fans will also remind you that their loss to Nebraska involved a controversial call that didn’t go their way.

Iowa. The Hawkeyes can win out, and they will be in.  An undefeated, major conference champion will go to the playoffs.  The Hawkeyes have avoided all three major teams from the Big Ten East, but they will face one in the conference championship game.  That win would be enough.  Any loss will knock them out.

Oklahoma.  The Sooners can finish 11-1 with road wins against Oklahoma State and Baylor and a home win against TCU.  They have a loss to Texas, but those three wins will be as good as anyone’s.  Plus, they would be Big 12 champions and are playing well at the end of the season.

Oklahoma State.  The Cowboys faltered last week, but they can still make the committee’s decision difficult.  They have the potential to finish 11-1 with wins over TCU and Oklahoma.  Their only loss is to Baylor.  That is a strong resume.

Baylor_University_Athletics_(logo).svgBaylor.  After losing their quarterback the Bears have taken a back seat in the playoff conversations, but they are sill in it.  If they win out, they will finish 11-1 with wins on the road at Oklahoma State and TCU.  Their loss to Oklahoma isn’t a bad loss, unless you’re trying to get in the playoff ahead of Oklahoma.

2000px-NotreDameFightingIrish.svgNotre Dame.  The Irish have been in the Top 4 all season.  Their best win is either Navy or Temple, but their only loss is to undefeated Clemson.  They need another quality win, and they have an opportunity against Stanford.  If they find a way to beat the Cardinal, they will be 11-1, and it will be hard for the committee to move them down.

The Notre Dame Problem

Some of these scenarios are mutually exclusive.  All seven teams can’t finish with one loss, but five can.  If Notre Dame is one of those teams, the playoff committee has put itself in an unsolvable quandary.  They have to move Notre Dame down after their biggest win, or they have to leave out a one loss conference champion with more quality wins.

Consider this possibility.  Ohio State, Michigan State, Baylor, Oklahoma and Notre Dame win out.  Who do you pick for your two spots?  You have to pick the two conference champions, right?  That would be Oklahoma and Michigan State.  Would the committee do that?  Would Notre Dame, of all teams, be leap frogged?

What if the committee doesn’t want to move Notre Dame down?  Do they go another route and punish the Big 12 for not having a conference championship game?  They did last year.  They could again.  Then they’d be putting Notre Dame in ahead of Oklahoma.  Can’t you see Jeff Long telling us how impressed they were with Notre Dame’s loss to Clemson and Oklahoma’s loss to Texas was bad?  Would they penalize Oklahoma for playing in a conference without a conference championship game and overlook the fact that Notre Dame doesn’t play in a conference?

Notre Dame can make this all easy for the committee by losing.  If they lose, things get very simple.  Without Notre Dame, the four playoff teams are Clemson, Alabama and the two conference champions.  With Notre Dame, you may end up with a mess.

This “mess” was created by the committee.  Notre Dame was never one of the Four most deserving teams in the country.  They are arguably one of the best, but you can make an argument for a dozen teams being one of the four best.

Now it doesn’t matter to the committee what they do.  People will be arguing and debating.  The amount of conversation about the playoff, the committee and the choices will sky rocket.  People will tune in to be proven right, to see Notre Dame lose because they never belonged there.  They will tune in to see Notre Dame win, to prove they’re one of the Top Four team (post hoc justification be damned). That’s what the committee really wants.

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What We Learned: Week 11

Posted on November 23, 2015 by Billy Koehler

b1gMichigan State’s Defense is Good.  This isn’t really something new we learned, but we have confirmation.  The Spartans did such a good job on Urban Meyer’s Buckeyes that Ohio State players were complaining about the playacting and ball distribution after the game.  The headline story from the game was all about Ezekiel Elliott’s post game comments, but it should have been about the defense.  Elliott implied he didn’t get enough yards because the play calling was bad.  It may have been, but it was also because Michigan State is very good.  Speaking of which,

Ohio State isn’t the same team as last year’s playoff team.  Last season Ohio State meandered through the regular season winning all but one game.  They didn’t look like a playoff team most of the year.  All of a sudden, they caught lightning in a bottle.  The last three games of the season, the Buckeyes were the best team in the country.   This season Ohio State has looked more like the pedestrian regular season team than the elite playoff.  After Saturday’s loss, they probably won’t have the opportunity to turn it on in the playoffs.

LSU fell apart.  What if every question mark your team had was answered in theLouisiana_State_University_(block_logo).svg negative?  That’s pretty much what has happened to LSU.  When the first playoff rankings came out the Tigers had arguably the best resume in the country.  Their wins over Florida and Mississippi State were as good or better than anyone else’s.  But, the Tigers still had questions.  Now we know the answers, and they’re bad, very bad.  LSU has lost three games in a row, by double digits.  Things are so bad no the bayou they are considering canning a 100-win, national championship coach and paying him $15,000,000.00 to go away.  This fall was quick.

Don’t Bet on Arkansas. Lines are out for most of this weekend’s games.  Take a look at the Razorbacks.  You may think you have them figured out; you don’t.  Is there a more unpredictable team in the country?  No one thought they would go win at Ole Miss and at LSU, then lose at home to Miss State.

2015-05-27_05-36-18-PMArkansas-Razorback-LogoSome games it looks like the defense is going to be as good as last year.  They held Alabama to 27 and LSU to 14.  Then they gave up 52 and 51 to the Mississippi schools.  I’m pretty certain they are going to beat Missouri handily, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Georgia Tech is the Most Disappointing Team in America.  The poor, poor Yellow Jackets have had a rough year.  In August there was a significant amount of chatter about GT being a Top 4 playoff contender.  They returned enough talent to compete to win the ACC.  It hasn’t worked out that way.  Injuries and bad breaks have wrecked the Tech season.  Georgia Tech is 3-8 and can only hope for an upset against Georgia to salvage anything of this year.

hFAmbhIh_400x400The Pac-12 is still around.  You can be forgiven if you’ve forgotten about the Pac 12.  Oregon removed themselves from national championship conversation early in they year.  Each team that seemed to rise from the group to national relevance, disappeared just as quickly.  The conference has been out of playoff contention for a few weeks now, but they will have an effect.  This week Stanford plays Notre Dame.  The Cardinal can knock the Irish out of the playoff or give them the quality win they need to justify their Top 4 ranking.  Other than that, you can feel free to forget about the West coast powers.

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SEC – Big Ten Challenge

Posted on November 20, 2015 by Billy Koehler

Bret Bielema had a fantastic idea for scheduling.  He suggested that two conferences, like the Big Ten and SEC, have a challenge.  In his plan there would be one week of the season where the conferences would play each other.  The best teams from one conference would play best teams from the other, and then the next best teams would play and so on down the line.  It’s the kind of thing that has been discussed and debated in bars and break rooms.  Friends and rivals argue about who would win in such a hypothetical.  It’s fun to talk about, but could it be feasible?

Logistics

The big hurdle would be logistics.  If you are going to schedule in an unorthodox manner, you will have to be sure it will work.  College football games require way more preparation and coordination than most of us realize.  The personnel that is needed to run a game as well as traffic management, parking and clean up is massive.  Games can’t just happen without some notice.  

Look at South Carolina and LSU this year.  Williams-Brice Stadium was fine to host a football game, but the personnel that would be needed wasn’t available.  Nearby cities like Charlotte couldn’t host very easily because they had other things going on.  Putting football games on with short notice doesn’t work.

To alleviate the notice problem, both conferences in the challenge could split up their teams into half who will play at home and half who will play away.  That’s going to have to happen anyway, but if it is determined at the outset, then the home team may not know who it is playing, but it will know it will be preparing for a home game.  It will know most of what it needs.  The traveling team won’t know where their plane will be touching down, but they will know they need to travel.  This is doable logistically.

Formulaic

The challenge must be formulaic.  It’s not going to work as well if ESPN decides who they want to see play.  There will be cries about fairness and some teams getting marquee matches while others get left on the Ocho.  To fix this, just make the standings the determinant for who plays who.  If you’ve already chosen who will be home and who will be away, just put them in order based on their conference standings, and viola you have your match ups.

Television

Television, ESPN in particular, drives college football.  There is so much money in televising games it causes conference to expand and teams to change conferences.  TV is the reason this might actually happen.  A challenge would be fantastic viewing.  Everyone will tune into an Alabama-Ohio State game, but how do you get people to tune into Missouri and Indiana?  Simple, you make that game matter for the conferences.

This would be a whole weekend affair.  You could do it on labor day weekend to start the season.  On Thursday you would have an early and a late game in the challenge.  Friday night would have a game too.  Saturday would be like New Year’s Day: game after game that mattered.  Add a game or two on Sunday night and a big one on Labor Day, and you have five days of non-stop conference battle.  The ratings would be massive.

SEC v. Big Ten v. ACC

A combination of the SEC, Big Ten or ACC would be the quickest and easiest to put together.  There are 14 teams in each conference, meaning every team would play and no one would be left out.  A challenge with another conference could work, but you would need to add teams.  For instance the Pac-12 could have a challenge and add BYU and Notre Dame to the mix for the weekend, if they were willing.

The SEC and Big Ten match up against each other better than with the ACC because there are very few games between the conferences now.  The ACC and SEC play plenty already.  Imagine the problems if Clemson and South Carolina were to play twice in a season or Kentucky and Louisville.  That won’t make the season better; it would be redundant.  Plus the Big Ten and the SEC are the two conferences who argue about who is supreme.  No one is really arguing the ACC is better than the SEC or the Big Ten.

How It Would Work

Let’s assume the SEC and Big Ten were to play this year.  First we have to divide the two conferences into home halves and away halves.  The Big Ten is easier.  We take the last week of the season, with its rivalry games, and do the opposite for the challenge.  For instance, in years where Ohio State plays at Michigan, Michigan will be away for the challenge, and Ohio State will be at home.  That should help balance the schedules, to some extent.  Using that formula, here’s the 2015 Big Ten home and away groups:

Home and away b1g

The SEC is a little trickier because many of the rivalry games are out of conference.  There would be other ways to figure this out, but for the sake of example, here’s how I broke them up.  South Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Kentucky play out of conference games the last week of the season, so I assigned them home or away to balance the locations of those games.  For example, in 2015 South Carolina plays Clemson at home, so South Carolina would be away for the challenge.  I did the same with the Egg Bowl and Iron Bowl.  That resulted in more away teams for 2015 than home teams.  LSU, Texas A&M, Arkansas and Missouri don’t play a historic, rivalry game the last week, so the same rationale didn’t work as well.  I divided them relatively randomly to get to seven home and away teams.  Here’s the SEC for 2015.

SEC hA

Then we look at the standings from 2014 and line everyone up.  The only tricky thing about this part is tie-breakers.  The conferences have tie breakers, but they aren’t designed for cross-division, so they might want some new ones.  Using the old ones, here’s what we get for the Big Ten.

BT st

Here is the SEC:

secha

 

So, we just match everyone up.  No politicking, no complaining.  As the head ball coach says, it is what it is.  Here are the match-ups.

Matchup

This would be an awesome weekend of football.  It’s shocking how even it seems it would be.  You have to think Ohio State beats Mississippi State at home.  Wisconsin beat Auburn; Penn State beats South Carolina.  Minnesota would beat Missouri, and Michigan would beat Arkansas.

The SEC would have its games too.  Alabama would beat Michigan State at home; Georgia would beat Nebraska.  Ole Miss and Texas A&M would demolish Rutgers and Illinois.  LSU would handle Maryland.  That’s five.  The rest of the games are toss ups.

It would be 5 games for each conference and four toss ups.  Can you imagine most of the country staying up late to watch the Purdue-Vandy game and the Kentucky-Indiana game to see who is going to win the challenge?  It would be great.  This needs to happen.

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Big XII Left Out Again?

Posted on November 17, 2015 by Billy Koehler

The possible playoff participants are dwindling in number.  The Pac-12 doesn’t have any viable candidates.  The ACC and SEC are down to two each; the Big Ten has three.  The conference with the most candidates is the Big 12, with four.  One is undefeated, and three have only one loss.  They will all play each other during the last five weeks of the season.  Despite that depth, the conference may be left out of the playoff.

Schedule

The Big 12’s schedule is different than the other conferences.  The early weeks of the season are filled exclusively with out of conference games.  Then, all of the marquee games in conference are at the end of the season.  It would seem this is done on purpose.  Without the benefit of a conference championship game, having your big name teams play one another at the end of the year should garner interest, ratings and rankings.  At least that is the idea.

Another perceived benefit of having this schedule is that it increases the depth of the league, whether real or perceived.  If a team makes it through the first 10 weeks of the season undefeated or with one loss, that reflects well on that team.  If a conference has multiple teams with one loss or fewer, it reflects well on the conference.  No one know if that reflection is a true indicator of depth or an anomaly based on scheduling.

Depth

There are four teams still alive in the Big 12, with Oklahoma State leading the way.  If the Cowboys win out, they are clearly going to the playoff.  If Oklahoma wins out, they will finish 11-1 with wins over Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State.  Combine that resume with an out of conference win over Tennessee and the Oklahoma brand, and the Sooners will probably be going to the playoff.

Then there are two teams who have a deep an unwavering love for the committee: TCU and Baylor.  Last season’s one loss resumes were not enough to qualify either team for the playoff, and it could happen again this year.

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Take TCU.  Were they to win out they would have wins over Oklahoma and Baylor.  A loss on the road at Oklahoma State would not be a black eye, but the Frogs would still need some help.  Barring 2007 like chaos the Big 12 isn’t getting more than one team in the playoff.  If Oklahoma State keeps winning, it’s going to be the Cowboys.  Imagine the angst in Fort Worth if the Horned Frogs finish 11-1 with wins away versus Oklahoma and at home against Baylor only to be left out again.

As bad as that scenario would be, there is a worse one for TCU.  TCU could win out, get help from an Oklahoma State loss and still be left out of the playoff.  Notre Dame and a one loss team from another conference could be problems for them.  There’s no reason to assume that the committee will choose Notre Dame or perhaps a one loss Big Ten team over them, but there’s no guarantee the committee won’t.

Then there’s Baylor.  They could share the same fate as TCU, except they don’t need Oklahoma State’s help.  The Bears could finish the season with two marquee wins, at Oklahoma State and at TCU.  The only blemish on their schedule would be a home loss to Oklahoma.  That resume should be strong enough to get them into the playoff, but the Baylor would be in the same position as TCU: their fate in the hands of a committee.

Expand or Die

Despite backloading their schedule, the Big 12 teams are still operating at self-inflicted disadvantage.  The lack of a championship game means one less big game for one of its teams to win.  Imagine if there were a championship game, even it was a rematch.  Can you imagine any of the teams mentioned above finishing 11-1 and then beating another 11-1 or a 10-2 team to win the championship?  That team would be a shoe in.  It would make it easy for the committee.  Something that didn’t happen last year.

The Big 12 knows it is hampered by the lack of a championship.  It has tried to brand its way around it (“One True Champion”) and to get an NCAA waiver to allow it to have a championship, but neither has worked.  If the conference doesn’t want to risk being left out every year, it needs to expand.  It doesn’t matter who they add.  It really doesn’t.  The Big 12 is now being penalized more for having no conference championship than it would be if it added two FCS teams to its league.

How crazy is that?  Go add Houston and SMU.  They’d be happy to come.  Want to expand your geography?  Go get Central Florida and Cincinnati.  It doesn’t have to be two AAC teams.  It could be anyone, and it will resolve the issues with the championship game.

Save Room?

Oklahoma State is the only sure bet for the conference.  If they win out, they make it easy for the committee.  They could be like Clemson and Ohio State/Iowa, the undefeated champion of a power 5 conference.  If they are, it’s easy for the committee; let them in.  Then the committee can pick between the one loss teams, which will probably include Alabama and Notre Dame.

If the conference has a one loss team to put forward as its champion, things could get dicey.  There will be more one loss teams from power conferences than places for them to go.  The Big 12 is owed one by the committee for last season, but will the committee see it that way?  Don’t bet on it.

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What We Learned: Week 10

Posted on November 16, 2015 by Billy Koehler

Louisiana_State_University_(block_logo).svgLSU is not elite.  Two weeks ago the Tigers looked like one of the elite teams.  They had arguable the best resume in the nation with wins at Mississippi State and home against Florida.  Now, they’ve faced double digit losses to Alabama and at home to Arkansas.  The Tigers last two games are toss ups.  They could win both, lose both or split.  They won’t be going to the playoff, but no one will be thrilled to see them in their bowl game.

Southern Cal is … good?  Does anyone have a good feel for the Trojans now?  After a close loss to Stanford and a blowout of Arizona State it seemed like USC was a pretty strong team who could compete in the Pac-12.  An unexpected loss to Washington and a loss to Notre Dame made them look quite pedestrian.

Then they beat undefeated Utah and California.  OK, so they’re good gain, right?  Close wins against Arizona and Colorado muddied the water again.  So they’re pretty good, but not great, is that right?  Is that saying anything at all?  This weekend they play equally unpredictable Oregon.  A blowout either way wouldn’t be a surprise, but who knows?

Poor Duke.  Duke started their season off hot and was tied for the Coastal lead (mostlyDuke_text_logo.svg because of a weak schedule).  Then there was the travesty of the Miami game.  It seems the Blue Devils haven’t been able to recover from that.  Last week they were absolutely destroyed by North Carolina.

This week they lost by 18 at home to Pitt.  The Panthers may be the better team, but they aren’t that much better.  It’s starting to look like the end of the Miami game is ruining Duke’s season.  They seem to be hungover.  Sometimes circumstances affect a team in more ways than just the score.  Poor Duke.

Navy has a Defense.  Very, very quietly Navy has been putting together a wonderful season.  While everyone talked about Memphis, Houston and Temple in the American Athletic, Navy was quietly winning games.  A loss at Notre Dame is the only game they haven’t won, and the only game their defense hasn’t put up great numbers.

The Midshipmen’s option offense is famously difficult to defend, but this season Navy’s defense is good.  Last week they held SMU to 14 points and haven’t given up more than 21 in any game this year, except Notre Dame.  In two weeks they travel to Houston for a Friday night game we should all be watching.

hFAmbhIh_400x400The Pac-12 is out of the Playoff.  The Stanford – Oregon game has to be a favorite for gamblers.  It seems the underdog is always ruining the other’s season.  That was no different this weekend.  Oregon gave Stanford their second loss, and knocked them out of the playoff.

Utah, an early season surprise has slid back to the field.  This weekend’s loss at Arizona ends their playoff hopes.  That’s too bad for the conference since there seems to be a bevy of good teams on the West Coast, but there aren’t any great ones.

Oklahoma is very much alive.  The Sooners are this year’s Ohio State.  They lost a game early to a vastly inferior team.  At the time everyone thought they were finished.  Now the Sooners are resurgent.  If they continue to win, it will be very difficult to keep them out of the playoff.  Bedlam could be a playoff game this year.

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Key Plays: Clemson v. Florida State

Posted on November 13, 2015 by Billy Koehler

On Saturday night Clemson beat Florida State 23-13 to win the ACC Atlantic Division and remain number one in the Playoff rankings.  Here is how the Tigers did it on some key plays.

Capitalizing on Momentum

Toward the end of the first quarter, Clemson threw incomplete on 3rd and 11.  Florida State was (correctly) called for pass interference, giving the Tigers a first down in Seminole territory.  Clemson took advantage of the opportunity and exploited the middle of the FSU defense for a big gain.  Here’s that play.

Clemson lined up in shotgun with five wide receivers, three to the short side and two to the wide side.  Florida State had nickel personnel on the field and was running Cover 2 with a 5 man zone underneath.

Sheet 1-1

The Tigers were going to try to capitalize on their momentum by sending two receivers at the safety to the short side of the field.

Sheet 1-2

Since Florida State was in Cover 2, the safety to the short side of the field (left on the diagram) is responsible for the deep half of the field on his side.  Clemson sent two receivers into his zone and forced him to choose which one to cover.  He moved to cover the receiver to the outside leaving the middle of the field open.  Quarterback Deshaun Watson threw the ball as soon as the receiver cleared the linebackers’ zones for a big play.

The play was well conceived and designed to beat this coverage.  The Seminoles brought four rushers, but the pocket was clean, giving the play time to develop.  The throw looked easy, but it is difficult to get that ball over the linebackers without over throwing the receiver.

There really wasn’t a lot that Florida State could have done in the coverage they were in.  The most dangerous receiver on the short side of the field was the one running deep along the sideline.  The safety was on his way to cover him when the ball was thrown.  After the throw, the safeties did a good job getting back to hold the play for only a big gain and not a touchdown.  Had Clemson continued to run this play, Florida State could have adjusted their coverage to have the middle linebacker drop deeper to take away the middle of the field.  That coverage would be very similar to the Tampa Two.

Taking the Lead

Early in the third quarter Clemson was just across midfield facing third down.  Had they not converted they would have faced a long field goal attempt or risk going for it on fourth down.  They called a screen and scored a touchdown to take the lead.

Clemson had stacked receivers to both sides of the formation and a running back in the backfield.  Florida State moved its cornerbacks up to the line directly across from the stacks to prevent free releases by the receivers on the line.

Clemson ran a fake screen to the right of the formation, the wide side of the field.  It’s possible that the fake was part of a packaged play, but it’s more likely just a fake.  Since the running back ran to the fake side as a possible receiver and one of the receivers acted like he might catch the pass too, it doesn’t look like a packaged play.  Maybe one of those players was doing the wrong thing, and that is why there are two receivers in the area, or it was a fake.

Nonetheless, the fake to the wide side pulled the middle linebacker over to that side, effectively taking him out of the play.  On the play side (left on the diagram), FSU blitzed two linebackers leaving only a safety and a corner to make the tackle.

Sheet 2

The blitz was well designed and would have overloaded the left side of the Clemson line, but that’s what screens are made for.  Like the first play diagrammed above, Clemson had the right call against the right defense.

Wide Receiver Deon Cain, who caught the touchdown, did two little things well that changed the play from a good gain to a touchdown.  First, he moved forward at the snap to simulate a downfield pass pattern.  Many receivers, especially young receivers, don’t take more than a jab step on hitches or screens, and it gives the play away early.

The second thing Cain does is move inside once he catches the ball.  This set up his blockers and allowed him to sprint to the end zone.  If Cain doesn’t come inside, the safety would have a chance to make a play on him.  Cain would probably have gotten around him, but he would have had to change direction and take time which may have allowed backside pursuit to catch him.

Putting the Game Away

The two plays above were examples of Clemson calling the right plays against the right defenses.  On the last touchdown Clemson didn’t win so much with scheme as they made Florida State miss tackles and get out of position.  Here’s that play:

Before the snap, Florida State’s defense shifted.  During the broadcast Kirk Herbstreit questioned why the linebacker was leaving the middle of the field.  The reason was that FSU was bringing a blitz from that side of the field, and he was moving to cover the area left by the blitzing defender.  This was unlucky for the Seminoles.

Sheet 3

Clemson was running the zone read.  The offensive line zone blocked to the left, and Clemson optioned the outside linebacker.  When the linebacker came up the field, Watson gave the ball to running back Wayne Gallman.  Gallman ran by the optioned defender and the blitzing defensive back, whose blitz took him out of the play.  Gallman then broke the tackle of the backside linebacker and made a move on the safety.  Touchdown, ballgame.

Sheet 3-1

The offensive line completely sealed the backside of the play making most of the FSU defense irrelevant to the play.  There were two FSU defenders who had chances to make the tackle and didn’t.  It also looks like the outside linebacker took himself out of the play.  If he doesn’t go outside to stop Watson, this play may have been stopped.  Since there was a blitz coming from the corner, the outside linebacker probably should have squeezed down to take away the hand off to Gallman.  Watson would have kept the ball and been one on one with the blitzing corner.  Would he have made a move? been tackled?  Tough to say, but it probably wouldn’t have been a touchdown.

The play that put the game away should be credited to Wayne Gallman.  He makes a successful play that gained some yards and ate some clock into a game winner.

 

Highlight credit: ESPN and ACC Digital Network

Here are some older Key Plays from earlier in the season.

Key Plays: Georgia Tech v. Florida State

Key Plays: LSU Fake Field Goal

Key Plays: The Texas Power

Key Plays: Texas Tech v. TCU

Key Plays: Florida v. Tennessee

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Manufacturing Controversy

Posted on November 11, 2015 by Billy Koehler

College Football fans have been denied the fairer system they were promised. The playoff was sold as an improved system to make sure the national champion was decided on the field.  A committee was appointed to ensure the system would be better than the BCS that preceded it.  They are failing.

Who’s In?

c01-sline-logo-30_001-4_3The committee isn’t clear about which teams they are choosing.  The vague mission of the playoff, that the national champion be decided on the field, is the genesis of the problem.  It is unclear whether the four teams who are to play in the playoff are to be the four best teams in America or the four most deserving.  In the FAQs the Playoff calls the four teams the best, but the rest of the literature seems to go out of its way to avoid saying the best.

The committee gives criteria.  They choose four teams for the playoff based on “conference championships won, strength of schedule, head-to-head results, comparison of results against common opponents and other factors.”  Well isn’t that nice?  Look at all of the factors the committee is going to look at.  They certainly are being thorough.  We should have confidence in their choices.

It Could Be Based on Anything

There is nothing about these list of things the committee might be talking about that should inspire confidence.  Sure, these are things which are relevant, but in what weights?  Is a conference championship more important than a difficult schedule?  Are head to head results the most important thing?  What in the world are other factors?  They actually list other factors.  Does that mean that uniform choice will matter?  What about big names?  Would Ohio State sell more tickets and garner higher ratings than TCU?  Would name recognition alone be a reason to put a team in?  It might be.  That might be one of the other factors.

Repeating Past Mistakes

This isn’t the first major sport to use a committee and their subjective guesses.  We pretend each March that a committee does a good job picking the NCAA tournament basketball field.  When a team gets left out who belonged in, it is rationalized two ways.  First, we ignore the complaints by saying, “yes, you had a good case to get in, but so did other teams.”  Then we marginalize the compliant, “look, it’s not like you were going to win anyway.  We’re talking about the last team in.  It’s not like the 65th team is going to win it.”

The football committee will use the first argument, “oh, we looked at other factors and decided.  It was a tough choice, but we are very pleased with ourselves.”  The committee doesn’t have the luxury of the second excuse.  While the last team out of the NCAA tournament probably can’t win it all, the next few teams left out of the playoff certainly can.  The fifth, sixth and seventh best teams in America are capable of winning two games in two weeks against anyone.  Ohio State proved that last year.

An Improvement?

A system designed to pick the best teams based on highly subjective and secret factors is going to fail at it mission.  This isn’t a problem the committee needs to solve because it’s not really their mission.  They aren’t really interested in putting the best teams together in a playoff.  They have no interest in determining the most deserving teams at all.  They want interest.

Manufacturing Controversy

How do they get it?  They have viewers on tv and tickets sold.  They manufacture controversy so that interest is highest.  How else do we explain TCU’s tumble out of the rankings last year?  How do you explain the wild swings eo often last year?

Here’s the thing about those wild swings.  They are solely for the purpose of generating controversy.  That’s all they are there for.  The committee has been up front that there will be swings.  They view this as an improvement on traditional polls.  With new information each week, they contend, they completely re-evaluate all the teams and rank them as of now.  They aren’t giving deference to old rankings.

Is that really what they are doing?  Did the committee really learn so much about the teams in one week?  Were they so wrong about who the best teams were last week?  The rankings and the playoff are supposed to reflect the committee’s view of the best teams and not the most deserving.  When there are wild swings or undefeated teams jumping other undefeated teams, is the committee saying they got it wrong last week or are they just generating controversy and interest?

Championships Will Remain Mythical

The playoff is supposed to eliminate the mythical national championship.  It hasn’t.  It’s only replaced the polls and computers of the BCS with the secret deliberations of a committee.  The committee has then taken it upon themselves to generate controversy so they can generate more money for the conferences who employ them.  There is no reason to believe this sort of system doesn’t produce anything that isn’t mythical.

The playoff’s mere existence is a financial boon.  It doesn’t need a committee ginning up controversy.  It’s not fair to the players and coaches to move them around at random and to call it deliberative rankings.  When the committee ranks teams for any reason other than most deserving, they undermine their legitimacy and the playoffs.

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