24 Hours of College Football

Posted on March 8, 2016 by Billy Koehler

It’s never to early to start looking forward to opening day.  The college football off season is a grueling 233 day slog.  This season we’ve only gotten through 57 days so far, but instead of dwelling on that, let’s fantasize about what opening day could look like.

For eight years college basketball has showed us the way.  Aided by ESPN they start the season with a megadose of the sport to get everyone going.  They play games around the clock for 24 hours.  College football could do that too.  Looking at this year’s schedule, here’s how.

Friday, September 2, 2016, 12:00 pm local time, 12:00 pm EDT

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Some teams will not want to play at noon on a Friday, even if it is the Friday before a long weekend.  Other teams are very willing to kickoff the season on national tv.  A Big 12 – SEC matchup would be a big enough draw to start the season, and teams like West Virginia and Missouri would probably be willing to move kickoff to suit television.

Friday, September 2, 2016: 2:30 pm local time, 3:3o pm EDT
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This is the kind of game where the teams may not want to move.  Clemson and Auburn is going to be on national television regardless of the kickoff time.  They may not be willing to play on a Friday afternoon, but they have both played their share of Thursday night games, so they may.  An exclusive window would also be a nice carrot to entice a big Friday afternoon matchup.

Friday, September 2, 2016, 6:00 pm local time, 7:00 pm EDT

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Here is another major national game where the teams may be reluctant to move, but Friday night is an easier sell than Friday afternoon.  Notre Dame has traveled to Ireland and played at odd times before, so this could work too.

Friday, September 2, 2016, 7:30 pm local time, 10:30 pm EDT

 

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West coast teams talk about East Coast bias and relish opportunities to have both a normal kickoff time and East Coast exposure.  Even though it’s on a Friday night, this game accomplishes both.  It’s another great opening match that should draw some interest.

Saturday, September 3, 2016, 6:00 pm local time, 2:00 am EDT

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This game is already slated to be played to open the season.  The kickoff team hasn’t been announced, so this would be doable.  The teams have agreed to travel to Australia to play.  Kickoff time would then be a minor detail.  It’s not must see tv for everyone, but for 2 am on the east coast, it’s pretty good.

Saturday, September 3, 2016, 11:30 am local time, 5:30 am EDT

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This is the hardest time slot to fill.  There aren’t many places where the game can be played during normal game times where there would be much of an audience.  Continental Europe is the best bet.  Most of the European soccer stadiums could host.  Paris, Rome or Berlin could all work.

In order to draw any sort of international crowd there would need to be some teams with name recognition.  Alabama and Southern Cal are about as big as it gets.  That should help with attendance, but the big name means these programs don’t have to travel if they don’t want to.  It could be a tough sell, but can you imagine what would happen if the Crimson Tide fans descended on Paris?  How much fun would the Finebaum show be the next Monday, “Paul, we took the boat into Normandy, like we usually do…”

Saturday, September 3, 2016, 1:00 pm local time, 9:00 am EDT

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This game is already scheduled to be played in Dublin, so it’s just a matter of kickoff time.  Like the game in Australia, this game shows that 24 hours of football with some international sites is feasible.

Saturday, noon eastern.

It would now be time for all of the regular, Saturday schedule.  Depending on what time the west coast games finish it may end up being closer to 36 or 38 hours of college football to kickoff the season.

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Much Ado About Nothing at Ole Miss

Posted on March 7, 2016 by Billy Koehler

UMRebels_logo_(script)The Jackson Clarion-Ledger obtained copies of most of the allegations currently leveled by the NCAA at Ole Miss.  They aren’t incredibly interesting, salacious or serious.  A sampling:

“After the repairs were made, [name redacted] attempted to return the loaner vehicle to the dealership but claims he was informed by the dealership that a loaner car return could only be made by the individual who had arranged the loaner; here, [name redacted],” read the report, which added player’s father set up the player’s loaner car and lived three hours from Ole Miss.

So, a guy kept a loaner car longer than he was supposed to?  I’m not sure I believe the idea that he couldn’t find a way to return it for three months, and it may be an impermissible benefit, but it appears to be for only one player, hardly a lack of institutional control or anything big.

Another one where coaches called recruits when they weren’t supposed to:

Ole Miss football coaches committed several pocket dials to recruits as described in three separate self-reports.

Pocket dials with iPhones are difficult but not impossible.  Again, assuming the violations were willful, three phone calls won’t amount to much.

I don’t want to make light of intentional rule breaking, if that’s what we have here, but I was under the impression the Ole Miss NCAA violations were a much bigger deal.  These just don’t seem like it, to wit:

Photos of a football player appeared on social media postings belonging to a for-profit company called Timeless Generation owned by his brother and two friends. The player wasn’t compensated and the fact he played football at Ole Miss wasn’t highlighted in the postings.

If I’m an Ole Miss fan, I’m breathing easier knowing the recent uptick in recruiting isn’t the product of some blatant disregard for the rules.

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Late Kickoff times

Posted on March 7, 2016 by Billy Koehler

In response to last week’s article about TV ratings Jim H asked a question on our Facebook page.  His questions is this:

if so many viewers are in the east, why do prime match-ups start so late?

First, I could not be sympathetic.  Having a day job and a small child along with getting old means that late kickoffs are an issue for me.  For most night games I may not watch much of the end unless it’s compelling.  I don’t think I’m alone, but…

To answer the question directly, it’s about money.  Channels air college football games in order to make money.  They make money by selling advertising.  They can demand more from advertisers if they have more viewers, so they want to maximize viewers.

The most lucrative time to have viewers is primetime, defined as 8 pm to 11 pm

Source: Nielsen

Source: Nielsen

by Nielsen.  During that time audiences tend to peak around 9:15 to 9:30.  Audiences are lowest from 10:45 to 11:00.  With that in mind it appears the ideal scenario for a television network is to have a game overlap with all of the East Coast’s primetime slot.  Assuming a three and a half hour game, the ideal kickoff time would be about 7:30.

A secondary consideration would be the West Coast markets.  Being three hours behind, primetime in Los Angeles doesn’t overlap with primetime in New York.  As such it is hard to get a three hour game into both markets in primetime.  Since New York and the East coast are vastly more important for ratings, kickoffs tend to cater to that.  But the other timezones aren’t irrelevant, so I think the creep of kickoff times are an attempt to grab viewers there too.  I assume they’ll continue to go later until east coast ratings drop off.

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College Football TV Ratings

Posted on March 4, 2016 by Billy Koehler

The Number Monkey, a writer at Big XII Fanatics, has a very interesting piece up about television ratings for college football.  In this piece he looks at the Tier 1 games, those on ABC, CBS, Fox and NBC.  In addition to some in depth analysis (and pretty charts) there is this:

One thing that stands out when looking at the numbers, is that out of conference games, while valuable, are nowhere near as valuable as conference games.  This is why the Big Ten, Big 12 and Pac 12 have moved to nine conference games; they have more premium inventory to sell.  While ABC shows a slightly larger average for out of conference that is due to three big games, two of them in the first two weeks.

That should provide support for conferences who are thinking about going to nine conference games.  I wonder if there would be better ratings if the power five conferences just scheduled each other.  That’s would definitely increase the viewership of most people I talk to.  On the other hand most people that I talk to about college football viewership and future scheduling philosophy are pretty hardcore fans.

According to the Number Monkey, East coast bias is alive and well.

Time of day, however, does.  Almost half of the US population resides within the Eastern Time zone.  Matter a fact, just under 80% of the US population resides within the Eastern and Central Time Zones, with only 14.1% of the population residing on the West Coast.

That being said:

Time of day and place within the season, while having a big impact on audience, are not the primary reason people watch games, it just shows when they like to watch.   The most important indicator toward whether a game garners a large audience or not is the winning percentage of the teams playing the game.

The piece is interesting throughout and worth reading.

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Half Measures: Florida Edition

Posted on March 3, 2016 by Billy Koehler

Administrators continue to be puzzled why record tv ratings don’t translate into record demand for season tickets, especially for football.  In response most schools have taken slow, inadequate steps to upgrade the game day experience.

Wednesday Florida took a step.  They reversed the nonsensical ban on serving alcohol at games.  Except there’s a catch.  As Saturday Down South reports:

At Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, fans in the Holloway Touchdown Terrace and Evans Champions Club will be able to purchase beer and wine until the start of the third quarter during the 2016 season.

At the Stephen C. O’Connell Center, fans will be able to do the same in the Sideline Club and Courtside Club until the start of the second half. The new amenities there will be provided in December 2016, once a $64.5 million renovation is completed for the new O’Connell Center.

So the alcohol will only be available in the premium areas.  I suppose that’s a sound strategy for getting existing fans to upgrade their seats to the premium areas, but will it draw new fans or replace those who find the home experience to be superior?

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LSU Football is Untouchable

Posted on March 2, 2016 by Billy Koehler

LSU is always talented.  Next season they appear to be set to return more talent than usual.  Typically the NFL draft hits the Tigers especially hard, a problem many teams would be happy to have.  All of that could be in doubt this season if the state of Louisiana cannot get its finances in order.  An article by Rebekah Allen in The Advocate explains:

It’s not hyperbole, it’s reality, says LSU President F. King Alexander.

If the mid-year cuts to higher education are deep enough that campuses close early or that summer school is cut, then athletic programs will suffer, he told the Baton Rouge Press Club on Monday afternoon.

I’d be a little concerned if I was an LSU fan.  As an outside observer I can comfortably say, don’t worry too much LSU.  It would be absolute political suicide for a legislature to hurt a program like LSU.  That program is too successful and too important for the assembly to hurt it over a budget issue.  Tax increases would be more popular than hurting LSU football.

LSU, as a program, is more important to the state of Louisiana than most other big time programs are to their state because there is no other major program in state.  The football program will be the last thing touched.  Hyperbole from lawmakers and educators is designed as leverage to get what they want.  But, it’s a bluff.  Nothing will happen to LSU football for budgetary reasons.

(H/T: Saturday Down South)

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Predicting the Next Four Years

Posted on March 2, 2016 by Billy Koehler

College Football eras fit neatly into four year windows.  That’s the usual length of a college sojourn for a student.  ESPN’s Adam Rittenberg uses the leap day to look forward to the next four years.  Among his predictions:

Others that could be generating more national buzz in 2020 include Virginia Tech (new coach Justin Fuente provides the offensive acumen to boost a program with typically elite defense and special teams); UCLA (long overdue facilities upgrade should help, and recruiting already has been elevated); North Carolina (sleeping giant finally pledges more to facilities, which should make the job attractive even if Larry Fedora departs); and Georgia (longtime underachiever in talent-stocked region should put it all together under Kirby Smart). Add in San Diego State if you’re looking for a Group of 5 team that could make some noise.

Rittenberg also talk to coaches about their thoughts:

Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi thinks that unless the NCAA restricts the lineman downfield rule, the number of “RPO” — run-pass option — offenses will increase with speed as the top priority. “It’s becoming basketball out there,” he said.

There are more speculative predictions.  Read the whole thing here.

An interesting point that wasn’t touched, probably because no one really knows, is how defenses will react to the proliferation of effective spread attacks.  Spread attacks aren’t new, but there doesn’t seem to be a strong schematic response from the defense.  Surely one is coming.

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Crazy? Stat of the Day

Posted on March 1, 2016 by Billy Koehler

Usually I’m not much of an NFL guy, but this came across my twitter timeline:

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SportsCenter calls it crazy, but is it?  Quarterback is the most cerebral position on the field.  It stands to reason that the more a player plays, the wiser he gets.  A quarterback may not be able to have quite as much zip on the ball as he did when he was in his early twenties, but the difference wouldn’t be that big.

Also, be wary of assuming correlation implies causation.  There are many other variables at play here including coaches and teammates.

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Spring Practice Anywhere

Posted on February 24, 2016 by Billy Koehler

Bowl games are glorified exhibitions that usually take place in warm, attractive locales.  They are thought by many to be a reward for the players.  The team gets to travel to a tourist friendly destination and has all kinds of activities the week of the game to do.  The players get presents from the game’s sponsors.  It’s supposed to be a nice time. That’s the theory anyway.

In practice bowl games are a little different.  The presents and excursions are there, but many coaches view those as a distraction from game preparation.  After all those games do matter; they affect the win loss record and final standings.  The bowl game is no longer the best opportunity to reward the players in a fun environment.  Thanks to Jim Harbaugh spring practice is.

Harbaugh has recently made news for deciding to host a week of spring practices in Florida.  The reason for the location is simple: recruiting.  Harbaugh wants to have his program in front of the important recruiting state of Florida.  It’s smart, and he’s the first one to do it.  Others, of course don’t like it.  The SEC and ACC, two conferences who automatically have Florida exposure have voiced displeasure.  Harbaugh has responded, recently on twitter.

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He’s right.  Other sports teams go places, why not the football team.  But instead of just going to Florida for a few days, what if schools decided to use the opportunity to pamper their players?  Rather than just going to sunny, scenic Bradenton, why not go somewhere more exotic?  This is how spring football should be done.

The Caribbean.  Why not fly the team down to the Bahamas for the last week of spring practice?  Split time evenly between being on the field and being on the beach.  The Bahamas doesn’t produce as much football talent as Florida does, but how many players would like to sign up for a yearly sojourn to the islands?

Europe. Why not take the team on tour, like an old school grand tour in Europe.  Some schools have plenty of money.  Spend that on charter flights to London.  Have a practice or two there and stop by to see the Queen.  Take the train to Paris.  Spend some time there and have a practice.  Head down to Rome for the last practice.  The Coliseum isn’t in condition to host a spring game right now, but I’m sure there are some boosters who would like to help finance the revival of the Flavian amphitheater.

Asia. This might be a nice option for the Pac-12 schools who want to cultivate the Asian market.  Fly, in a luxurious charter flight of course, to Tokyo.  Tour the city between some well timed practices.  Hop over to China for some more “practice”.  Use the Great Wall for conditioning.

If the NCAA doesn’t clamp down, which they probably will, Jim Harbaugh has just scratched the surface.  If a school is willing to spend the money on accommodations and first class travel, imagine the experience they could give to their students (and use to recruit).

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Distraction Season

Posted on February 24, 2016 by Billy Koehler

What’s the worst thing that can happen to your team in the offseason?  Is it injury to key players?  Is it a signing day flip?  Is it an unexpected coaching change, or is it an off field distraction?

College football isn’t played in a bubble.  It’s played by a group of college students, who are coached by men who are working to support families.  It’s funded by people from every walk of life who make up the fanbase, themselves living everyday lives far from the football field.  With such an intense focus on what happens on the field and the preparation for that, we sometimes forget about the off the field side.

Then news breaks which causes the off the field issues to overshadow the on the field game.  The off the field issue is almost always negative.  It can be a player arrest or suspension, a poor choice of coach’s words or a minor NCAA rule infraction.  But it can be big, too.  It can be as big as Sandusky at Penn State; it can be accusations of rampant academic fraud at North Carolina, and it can be an alleged culture problem at Tennessee.

Before we talk about its impact on football, we would be remiss if we don’t acknowledge that many of these distractions that overshadow the game are more important to the game.  What happened at Penn State and what has been alleged at Tennessee are much, much more important than a football game, or a football program.  Those issues take precedence for a reason, but it is possible to discuss the secondary (or tertiary) impact these off the field issues have without marginalizing them.

Each off the field scandal or problem is unique, but the impact can be gauged by analyzing a few common aspects.  The magnitude of the impact on these factors will determine how much the football program is affected, regardless of the impact in the real world.

Direct Impact. By direct impact, we mean sanctions, either internally or externally imposed.  Will the school forgo postseason games because of the issue?  Will the NCAA reduce scholarships?  This is the first place many fans look to determine how concerned they should be about the program, and it’s important.

Alumni Money. Donations to the school and to the athletic programs are indisputably important to the success of the school’s teams.  If a scandal is such that alumni don’t want to give or don’t want to give as much, the off the field issue will manifest itself on the field for years.  Jason Kirk has written about the recent Missouri issues and how they affected the finances of the school.

Recruiting.  Recruiting impact is closely related to alumni money and direct impact.  If it seems a school is about to have sanctions imposed or has already had them, a secondary effect will be recruits becoming wary.  Few players want to go to a school that is ineligible to play in the post season.  Even without a formal sanction, recruiting can be impacted.  If the off the field issue drives a wedge between the school and its alumni, it can often drive the same wedge with potential players.  It’s harder to recruit to a school with a big problem, resolved or not.

Resiliency.  The position of each athletics program is different.  Some schools are resilient and can withstand an onslaught of poor decisions.  Alabama and Ohio State come to mind as schools who, no matter what, will almost always be back.  Penn State is proving quite resilient.  The scandal they had could have sunk other programs.  Some schools, your historic powerhouses, have so much structure and culture tied to their programs that they can withstand a tremendous amount of adversity and bounce back.  Others aren’t as resilient.

As we go through the offseason there will be more off the field issues.  Some will be small; some will be quite serious.  Although the magnitude of importance in the real world will vary, it may not directly correlate to impact on the field, meaning just because a scandal is very important (or not very important) to real world, the football impact won’t necessarily be the same.

 

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